Day: August 9, 2026

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生活 :

• McDonald’s {Safeway}
• – Alaska Barbershop
• – MiMi
• – Costco
• – Walmart
• – Alaska Behavioral Health
• – Dr. Bauer
• – Dr. Hompesch
• North Pole Branch Library

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2026 10

• CareCredit pay off
• Dr. Haskin pay off

2027

2028

2029 06~

• Medicare Plan G
• UAF Sr. Tuition Waiver

2030

• SSDI Trial Work

2031

2032

2033

2034 06~ 은퇴 I. ~2055~ 은퇴 II.

• 소셜 시큐리티 70歳 수령
• 家 @Fairbanks, AK 장만
• – SPIA “$20万”

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• (9)(9)(9) “financial freedom”
• – BA BBA, EA QBO CPA M.Ed Credential
• – SPIA “$4M”、Denali Center
• (3)(6) (6) (6)(6)、
• 가장 공부 많이 하고, 가장 돈 많고, 가장 오래 살면서…
• (6), (6)(6) / (6), (6)(6)
• – {Teachers}.BookerkeeperJohn.com
• – JinuAcademy.com

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生活 :

• McDonald’s {Safeway}
• – Alaska Barbershop
• – MiMi
• – Costco
• – Walmart
• – Alaska Behavioral Health
• North Pole Branch Library

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~2030 : 저축

• 2026 27 28 29 30

2031 32 33 2034 06 : 비축 저축액

• w/o SSDI
• w/ voucher

2034 06~

• 소셜 시큐리티 70歳 수령
• Fairbanks, AK 家 장만

(9) ~2037

(9) ~2046

(9) ~2055 : “financial freedom” 달성

(3)(6) (6) (6)(6)、

(6), (6)(6)

(6), (6)(6)

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~2055 “financial freedom”

(3)(6) (6) (6)(6)、

(6), (6)(6)

(6), (6)(6)

Accounting faculty, UAF

夏 :

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## The Lifetime Economic Value of Tax Planning for U.S. Public-Sector Employees

### Dissertation Overview

This dissertation investigates the long-term economic consequences of tax-planning decisions among U.S. public-sector employees.

Traditional tax research frequently examines taxation within a single year or evaluates individual tax provisions independently. However, many tax-planning decisions produce consequences extending across several decades. Contributions to traditional or Roth retirement accounts, pension distributions, retirement timing, Roth conversions, Social Security claiming, investment realization decisions, and outside business income may alter both current taxes and future taxable income.

This dissertation develops a lifecycle framework for measuring the cumulative economic value of tax planning.

Public-sector employees provide an especially useful population because workers commonly participate simultaneously in defined-benefit pension systems and tax-advantaged defined-contribution arrangements such as 403(b), 457(b), TSP, IRA, and related retirement accounts.

The research will compare alternative tax-planning strategies over complete careers and retirement periods while accounting for uncertainty in income, investment performance, longevity, tax rates, and retirement timing.

### Primary Research Question

To what extent can systematic lifecycle tax planning increase after-tax lifetime wealth and retirement security among U.S. public-sector employees?

### Secondary Research Questions

1. What is the lifetime economic value of coordinating pension benefits with traditional and Roth retirement accounts?

2. Under what conditions does traditional retirement saving dominate Roth saving, and under what conditions does Roth saving dominate traditional saving?

3. How does retirement-income timing affect lifetime federal and state taxation?

4. What is the value of Roth conversions during temporarily low-income years?

5. How does side-business or self-employment income affect optimal retirement-account and tax-planning strategies?

6. How do state income-tax differences alter optimal contribution and retirement-location strategies?

7. How large is the difference between annual tax minimization and lifetime tax optimization?

8. How robust are optimal tax-planning strategies to future changes in tax rates, investment returns, inflation, and longevity?

9. Which taxpayer characteristics create the greatest potential economic benefit from professional tax planning?

### Research Design

The dissertation will construct representative public-sector employee profiles across occupations, salary levels, ages, states, pension systems, household situations, and career stages.

For each worker profile, multiple tax strategies will be modeled, including:

baseline or minimal planning
traditional retirement contributions
Roth contributions
mixed Roth and traditional strategies
403(b) and 457(b) coordination
TSP strategies for federal employees
IRA contributions
Roth conversions
retirement-income sequencing
pension and Social Security coordination
side-business retirement planning

Federal and state tax liabilities will be calculated for each simulated year.

Commercial tax-preparation software may be used as an external validation mechanism for selected benchmark cases, while the research model itself will independently implement the relevant tax rules so that large-scale reproducible simulations can be conducted.

### Outcome Measures

The primary outcomes will include:

lifetime federal taxes
lifetime state taxes
present value of lifetime taxes
after-tax terminal wealth
after-tax retirement income
consumption during retirement
effective lifetime tax rate
marginal value of tax planning
probability of retirement-income shortfall
probability of asset depletion
inheritance or terminal estate value

Rather than identifying a strategy that performs best under one assumed future, the dissertation will evaluate strategies across thousands or millions of alternative economic and personal scenarios.

A strategy may therefore be evaluated according to both expected return and robustness.

### Expected Contribution

The dissertation will contribute to accounting and taxation research by shifting the unit of analysis from annual tax liability toward lifetime after-tax economic outcomes.

It will demonstrate that a strategy minimizing current-year taxes is not necessarily the strategy maximizing lifetime after-tax wealth.

The project will also quantify the economic value created by tax planning and identify the worker populations for whom tax planning has the greatest potential impact.

By incorporating statistical uncertainty models and economic behavioral responses developed in preceding research, the dissertation will connect accounting decisions to household financial behavior, public pension systems, and long-term retirement security.

The resulting framework could ultimately support occupation-specific and jurisdiction-specific retirement and tax-planning tools for teachers, firefighters, police officers, federal employees, state employees, municipal workers, and other public-sector employees.

## Public Pension Incentives, Taxation, and Labor-Supply Decisions Across the U.S. Public Workforce

### Dissertation Overview

This dissertation examines how public pension structures, taxation, retirement-account incentives, and Social Security rules influence saving, labor supply, occupational mobility, employee retention, and retirement decisions among U.S. public-sector workers.

Public employees face unusually heterogeneous compensation structures. Teachers, firefighters, police officers, federal employees, state employees, municipal workers, and other public-sector employees may be subject to different pension formulas, vesting schedules, employee contribution requirements, retirement ages, Social Security coverage, supplemental retirement plans, and state tax regimes.

These institutional differences create substantial variation in the economic incentives facing otherwise similar workers.

The dissertation will combine lifecycle economic modeling, administrative and publicly available data, institutional variation, econometric analysis, and stochastic simulation to investigate how workers respond to these incentives throughout their careers.

### Primary Research Question

How do public pension rules, taxation, Social Security participation, and tax-advantaged retirement accounts affect labor-supply, saving, mobility, retention, and retirement decisions among U.S. public-sector workers?

### Secondary Research Questions

1. How do pension vesting requirements affect employee retention and occupational mobility?

2. How do defined-benefit pension accrual patterns influence retirement timing?

3. Do supplemental retirement accounts such as 403(b), 457(b), and TSP plans increase total retirement saving, or do workers substitute among different savings vehicles?

4. How do federal and state marginal tax rates influence retirement-account contributions and outside labor income?

5. How does pension wealth affect household portfolio allocation and private saving?

6. How do differences across states and pension systems affect lifetime compensation and retirement security?

7. How do pension reforms change worker behavior?

8. Which combinations of pension and tax policy maximize retirement security while minimizing undesirable labor-market distortions?

### Economic Framework

Workers will be modeled as forward-looking agents who allocate resources and time over their lifetimes.

Individuals choose among consumption, saving, retirement-account contributions, labor supply, occupational mobility, and retirement while facing uncertainty concerning wages, investment returns, longevity, inflation, taxation, and future pension benefits.

The worker's decision problem can be represented generally as the maximization of expected lifetime utility subject to labor-income, tax, pension, savings, and borrowing constraints.

The dissertation will examine both financial incentives and behavioral responses generated by differences in public-sector retirement systems.

### Empirical Strategy

The research will exploit cross-sectional and longitudinal differences among states, occupations, pension systems, and policy regimes.

Where appropriate, empirical strategies may include:

panel-data models
difference-in-differences
event-study designs
regression discontinuity around pension thresholds
instrumental-variable approaches
hazard models for retirement and job separation
structural lifecycle estimation

Policy reforms affecting contribution rates, vesting periods, benefit formulas, retirement eligibility, or Social Security participation may provide quasi-experimental settings for estimating causal effects.

A stochastic lifecycle simulation model will then translate estimated behavioral responses into long-term consequences for retirement wealth, government pension costs, tax revenues, employee retention, and household welfare.

### Expected Contribution

The dissertation will contribute to public economics, labor economics, household finance, and pension economics by providing a unified analysis of how tax and pension institutions jointly influence public employees over their complete working lives.

Its principal contribution will be the integration of retirement incentives, taxation, saving behavior, and labor-market decisions within a heterogeneous national public-sector workforce.

The economic behavioral estimates produced by this dissertation will subsequently strengthen accounting research by allowing tax-planning strategies to be evaluated under realistic behavioral responses rather than assuming that taxpayers remain passive.

## Statistical Modeling of Lifetime Wealth and Retirement Risk in Heterogeneous Public-Sector Pension Systems

### Dissertation Overview

This dissertation develops a statistical framework for estimating lifetime retirement wealth, retirement-income adequacy, and financial risk among U.S. public-sector employees. Public-sector workers participate in highly heterogeneous pension, tax, Social Security, and supplemental retirement systems. Consequently, workers with similar salaries and career lengths may experience substantially different retirement outcomes depending on occupation, jurisdiction, pension structure, contribution behavior, investment performance, retirement timing, and longevity.

The study will construct a large-scale stochastic simulation model representing public-sector employees across occupational groups, states, pension systems, salary levels, ages, and years of service. The model will incorporate uncertainty in wage growth, inflation, investment returns, employment continuity, retirement age, longevity, and future tax environments.

Rather than relying solely on deterministic retirement projections, the dissertation will estimate complete probability distributions of lifetime outcomes. Primary outcomes will include lifetime after-tax wealth, replacement ratios, retirement income, lifetime tax payments, pension wealth, probability of retirement-income shortfall, downside risk, and the probability of exhausting financial assets.

### Primary Research Question

How can lifetime retirement outcomes for heterogeneous public-sector employees be estimated accurately and efficiently under simultaneous uncertainty in labor income, pension benefits, taxation, financial-market returns, and longevity?

### Secondary Research Questions

1. How much variation in retirement outcomes is attributable to individual characteristics, occupation, pension system, employer, and state?

2. Which sources of uncertainty contribute most strongly to lifetime retirement risk?

3. How accurately can computationally efficient simulation and statistical-learning methods approximate extremely large brute-force Monte Carlo simulations?

4. How sensitive are estimated retirement outcomes to assumptions regarding investment returns, inflation, longevity, salary progression, and tax policy?

5. Can adaptive sampling, variance-reduction techniques, Bayesian methods, or surrogate models substantially reduce the computational burden required for reliable retirement-risk estimation?

### Methodology

The dissertation will construct representative worker profiles using combinations of occupation, age, salary, years of service, pension plan, jurisdiction, retirement account availability, and household characteristics.

For each profile, stochastic lifetime trajectories will be generated using Monte Carlo simulation. Statistical methods may include hierarchical models, Bayesian estimation, survival models, quantile regression, generalized linear models, bootstrap inference, variance decomposition, sensitivity analysis, and machine-learning surrogate models.

A hierarchical framework will distinguish variation at multiple levels, including:

individual worker
occupation
employer or pension system
state
national economic environment

Simulation convergence will be evaluated to determine the number of stochastic paths required to obtain stable estimates of means, quantiles, tail probabilities, and retirement-shortfall probabilities.

The dissertation will also investigate whether relatively small, intelligently selected simulation samples can reproduce the results of much larger computational experiments.

### Expected Contribution

The principal statistical contribution will be a general framework for modeling lifetime financial outcomes when multiple sources of uncertainty interact within heterogeneous institutional systems.

The research will contribute to statistical methodology concerning simulation efficiency, hierarchical uncertainty, tail-risk estimation, and probabilistic prediction while simultaneously producing a reusable computational infrastructure for retirement-policy and taxation research.

The resulting statistical engine will provide the methodological foundation for subsequent economic analysis of worker behavior and accounting research concerning tax planning.

307 W 5th Ave、Voucher 生活 中、家 장만 後、

• 目標: “$100M” CDs 달성
• ~2029 06~30~2034 06~ : 은퇴 준비 완료

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家 “one bus away” from Wood Center 장만

• {McDonald’s} nearby
• – Breadline
• – Northern Hope Center
• – Starbucks
• SPIA “$20万” based 家 perpetual 확보 (2029 06~ )
• – upto $15万、no 재산세
• Accounting faculty, UAF days prep.
• – MyCPAMyTAX.com
• – {Teachers}.BookerkeeperJohn.com
• 夏:
• – 2793 W 3rd Ave, Frank Lloyd Wright BUILD
• —
• ~2055 “칩거” 後、”financial freedom”
• (3)(6) (6) (6)(6)、
• 가장 공부 많이 하고, 가장 돈 많고, 가장 오래 살면서…
• (6), (6)(6) : Mathematics PhD, Pitt (UPMC)
• (6), (6)(6) : Accounting PhD, {Pitt}
• —
• fully paid 家、Fairbanks, AK
• – Accounting faculty, UAF
• —
• 2793 W 3rd Ave, Frank Lloyd Wright
• – 06:20AM GREEN to North Pole {High} from McDonald’s

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